@Konyok:
identify some of the worst potential trouble makers in Russia.

You may be on to something. The whole Northern Causcasus is said to be disquieted. The Kossacks are still literally dozens of tribal groups (which correspond to fighting units and land occupation units just like they have since [what?] 1100 or something?

Apparently, Russia forced some larger Cossack groupings to absorb historically opposed and differently ethnic-based tribal groups. Ooopsie! The kossakii have already rebelled in some cases, submitted grudgingly in others.

Does Vlad the Inhaler thus have major reason to “externalise” an otherwise unmanageable low grade conflicts in the Northern Kavkaz?

Whoa, this is starting to look really grim. Old Vlad may have more conflict to externalize, beyond issues among the Kossakii, than anyone could have imagined (compare i.e. Muhajid! fight infidel in still-Muslim Waziristan and get blown up by American drone… vs, run around freely chopping off infidel body parts and seizing concubinas while gloriously retaking the land of Islam. )

And now we look good, with our Turkish and Azeri allies, promising to open up the Caspian to the Sunnah…

..my head hurts.