Russia’s behavior is really baffling in all this. It did not make sense for them to move beyond SO borders without capturing Tbilisi. Lets suppose that their blitzkrieg failed and they did not reach Tbilisi on time, before a reaction by US halted them. The question then becomes why did they break their word twice, thus further undermining their standing in the world (first when speaking to US, then when signing the agreement)?

First the game isn’t over. Putin’s motives for stopping under the cover story of a ceasefire may be the simple need to let logistics catch up. Logistics is gravity’s way of bringing military fantasy down to earth. It also may have been aimed at lulling the West into doing nothing. After all if it’s over, why send C-17’s? Why send the Navy? That’s provocative if “it is over”. But GWB made the judgment that Putin was lying about the ceasefire, or at least decided he couldn’t take the chance. After all, Putin lied to him once. If this scenario is true, Putin was playing with a weak hand. He is bluffing. That would also explain the theatrical cossacks. The stone-faced generals. Da. Nyet.

To tell you the truth, the US might be bluffing too. How strong is our hand? Above all how far aboard is Turkey. That’s what most of this hangs on. They control the Bosporus and the air and space routes into Georgia. But that’s for GWB to know and for Putin to find out.