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By Richard Fernandez

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August 13, 2008 - 1:49 pm - by Richard Fernandez
whiskey
2008-08-13 20:50:16

I certainly don’t want the Russians to die as a people. They gave us so much: Yuri Gargarin, the model of the “right stuff,” Tolstoy and Dosteyevsky and Tchaikovsky. It would be a tragedy of the highest order if Russians ceased to exist! Their people are brave and generous. Their leaders, however, have been uniformly horrible and their culture wounded from Czarism and Soviet Czarism. It goes all the way back to the Mongols and the serfdom therein.

However, in one way or another, overall, Putin must be stopped to save the world economy. If not in Georgia, in Iran or some other place.

Is it in the self-interest of the United States to fight over Georgia? No, though we ought to wish the democratically elected government of Georgia well and aid them in what way we can without risk of war with Russia.

Overall, however, it is VERY unhealthy for the US to be seen as weak and easily pushed around. Particularly in an age when one man can apparently weaponize Anthrax, Pakistan has over 100 poorly secured nukes, and Tehran races towards them. Not to mention, you can find Anthrax in a lot of soils, and it’s not that hard with new technology to weaponize it. Stuff that cost billions in the Cold War and required massive cities built around them can now be done in lots of labs around the world at little cost.

Erosion of US technological dominance requires more ruthless action to deter enemies and would-be enemies from attacking. Ironically, that is the arguement that Putin gave the Russian nation in his address after Beslan and the attack on Georgia to destroy it as an independent nation is the logical outgrowth of Beslan.

If the only security is to be seen as ruthless, dangerous, and effective, then all nations at risk must act that way, unless they have a bigger protector. In some ways, the Bush doctrine and larger US reaction to 9/11 mirrors Putin’s argument for ruthlessness.

I doubt there would be much support even among Putin’s thugs if it were not for Beslan. Russia too suffers from erosion of technological dominance and has nasty neighbors who must be dealt with in one way or another: Tehran, Pakistan, etc.

In short, Putin is the problem, not the Russian people. Aside from the petro-thug situation, both the US and Russia (and also, btw, China) face the erosion of technological dominance over enemies, who have no stake in the global status-quo and seek total dominance through will and brutality. Putin argues, raise brutality. Bush argues: micro-targeted brutality (something I agree with for now), a JDAM on Zarqawi. Obama argues (along with Europeans): give a speech as citizen of the world. What China argues is likely to tip the balance.

[Clearly, Georgia is not Russia's enemy, but groups like AQ and Chechen rebels and so on ARE. See: Beslan.]