The Christian numbers are believed to be declining and in that situation they are driven into alliances with the March 14 or March 8 people. So while neither March 14 nor March 8 will have their inherent interests at heart, the question is which alliance (with the Sunni March Fourteen or the Hezbollah’s March Eight) their greatest chance of survival lies. The answer may be neither in the long run for the Christians, but that is neither here nor there. For the moment, the Christian vote is split, but the degree of belief, especially amount the Aounists, that March Eight was better for the Christians appears not to have come off.

I think there is a genuine fear of Hezbollah’s power because it changes the old balance of power, which taken far enough, can rip Lebanon apart. In a battle for survival the factions may break up their coalitions; whether or not that will lead to another civil war is nothing anyone wants. But I think a Hezbollah victory would have been the greater of two evils from the Christian point of view if only because the Hez are likely to rocket Israel from the south and the remaining Christian communities there would be forced to evacuate north or abroad, perhaps for good.

Like I said, “The victors are politicians, and in politics nothing is perfect. The skies won’t open and a new day won’t automatically come.” But better one side I think, then the other.