The choice was easy, since Russia has been an ally of Iran, protecting it at every turn, arming it, and assisting it with nukes. Along with Putin’s “story” to Sharansky, Russia is a threat to the US.

BUT — I don’t think it’s all that bad for Russia, or that bad for the US.

For the US, what matters most is that Russia shows we can be defied and be shown to be relatively impotent in a number of places. This causes “unhealthy” ambitions in Tehran and Islambad and Riyadh and doubtless other places. Georgia free or slave, makes little difference to the national security of the US, but the US viewed with contempt as a paper tiger and the Russians as “unstoppable” is a HUGE security threat to the US.

In an age where apparently one man can distribute “weaponized” anthrax without special training (Ivins was working only on vaccines and had no training or equipment to “weaponize” his anthrax), this is not a trivial threat to the US.

Next, China has little force projection, particularly in Central Asia, and the recent and puzzling uptick in Uighur terrorism during the Olympics may be Russia keeping China occupied, by helping the traditional Russian terror network of Arab/Muslim radicals. While China remains a strategic threat to Russia, Russia retains nukes, important allies in Central Asia, and can “hide” behind a gigantic landmass. As noted, commercial and investment realities bear little to the thug regime in Moscow as in Havana or Zimbabwe.

Finally, timing. While this has been carefully planned for some time, I think the slide in oil prices was the biggest threat to Russia. All those guys shooting journalists in Elevators (who were doubtless digging in to where the graft went, and who did not get their “fair share” of the cut) have to be paid. They don’t work for free.

Russia could certainly call the US’s bluff in Georgia. Which is most dangerous — having the US look even worse to dangerous, unhealthy men.