My guess is that Ukraine is the prize.

It is the main object of Putin’s signal. “All ye countries with Russian nationalities, hear the Bear roar!” and that means you, Ukraine. Why do you think Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics have never wavered in their support for Georgia. Because they know they’re next. If they were by themselves, Putin’s gambit may have worked. It worked before. But the world has changed. China and India have a very large percentage of the world’s population and and by 2040 will have more than half of the world’s economic output. And then there’s Europe and of course, let’s not forget, there’s the United States. Therefore Putin can take his posturing some distance, but if he takes it too far and those monsters turn on him in combination it is all over for the Russian economy and for his regime.

Moscow is an unforgiving place. Fortunes are going to be lost over Putin’s Ossetia gamble. Putin has bet his shirt, and maybe his very neck, in the Big Casino.