“take a deep breather” – cedarford
“it’s almost as if the PRC were paying putin to do this” – cjm
In the past, I did worry that the USA’s dealings with Georgia
seemed designed to provoke Russia, but I reasoned that the USA
could not want to provoke Russia, and that it was probably just
neocon tactlessness. Dangerous, but not malicious.
Maybe I was just foolish then, but what really alarms me now is
the seeming yearning for the war we did not have in the 1980s.
Personally, I was glad we missed it, and fighting it now would
benefit who, exactly ? Self-interest demands that we consider
what the shape of the world would be afterwards.
History does not suggest that a war between the USA and Russia
would be short, since endurance has been a Russian characteristic
for many centuries. (It might be short if it were to go nuclear
at an early point, but then all bets would be off).
Therefore, I would expect it to be long enough that even if the
USA emerged militarily victorious, she would be financially
utterly gutshot.
NATO would probably have ceased to function long before that
point, most members, with the exception of Turkey, having neither
the motive nor might to be in the fight. Turkey’s actions would
probably include trying to wipe Armenia off the map, which would
further alienate France and Germany, and make it even harder
to construct a new alliance after the war. “US Prez demands that
Germany reward faithful US ally Turkey etc”
China would only need stay out of the fight to emerge the true
victor. Taiwan would be a temptation, but if China could resist
trying to snatch then it would soon fall into her lap anyway.
What might Iran might do ? Attack Israel during all the confusion ?
Wise heads would be unlikely to prevail there, but the more
thinking Jihadis elsewhere would see the war as a gift from Allah,
like the one between the Byzantine and Persian empires which
fatally weakened them in preparation for the first Jihad.
China would then be content to see the Jihadis preoccupied trying
to finish off the USA, but might “assist” Russia so as not to
left alone with the Jihadis for the end game.
Personally, I just can’t where the fun would be in all that.








