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By Richard Fernandez

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August 13, 2008 - 1:49 pm - by Richard Fernandez
RAH
2008-08-13 15:39:45

Reality calling? The Russians stopped the advanced since the Georgians retreated to Mtskheta, which had a good defensive position. Georgians still have tanks and communications probably got better with the new troops delivered.

Russia controls the road to the east but with the leaders of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine and France in Tbilisi it was too political risky to go for the capital.

The Russian expected a small military and Georgia to fold easily. They did not fold. Russia took casualties in Tskhinvali. They wanted reinforcements before going further, which were on the way with another 50 tanks. But they lost the momentum. Russia does not dare try to shoot down a C 17, which is slow and vulnerable because we may react with F 18’s.

Getting a naval vessel under the humanitarian excuse into the Black Sea is a first, I believe. The Russian would be very foolish to attack a US navy vessel doing a humanitarian mission bad mistake both in PR and militarily.

This is classic brinkmanship and Bush does play that game well. He is an excellent poker player. Russia will blink and withdraw and try to win concessions on the diplomatic front, which we will allow.