Belmont Club

By Richard Fernandez

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August 13, 2008 - 1:49 pm - by Richard Fernandez
sven
2008-08-13 15:08:10

Yes, everyone will be reevaluating their positions, but to Russia’s detriment. If you are a nation in the “near abroad” then unless you are willing to accept being a vassel of the Russian state, you will seek allies and alliances that maximize the chances that you can keep your independence.
If you are economically dependent on the Russians, you now have a major motivation to do all you can to cure that weakness. Think nuclear power. Think increased spending on military forces.
The US may not be able to immediately respond with direct military force in Georgia, but that can be fixed in the future, for example, by positioning bases in the near abroad that would deter such Russian adventurism due to the likelihood of immediate engagement with American/NATO military forces. Putin felt free to play his latest game in Georgia because of a lack of such things, but you can bet in the future any nation that wants to maintain its freedom take action to ensure that this could never occur again.
The US is still the big dog on the block, and everyone knows it. Even Putin will not risk open war with the West. Now that he has opened eyes worldwide about Russia’s true nature, everyone will take what action they think they need to to address the Bear,