I think it is quite likely that Putin will order his forces to fire upon American air and sealift activity.

He has to — he’s bet it all on making oil rise, to the point where he can pay his thugs who always need “more” money. Witness his self-defeating looting of direct foreign investment in Russia which is badly needed.

So ends the 1990′s. All of it. Including citizens of the world, assumptions about cheap oil, “end of history” and the rest of the lunatic fantasies of Western Europe and the Left.

Fundamentally, the West and China NEED cheap oil to promote economic activity. Russia and Iran (and Venezuela, and Nigeria, and Saudi) need expensive oil to keep their thugocracy afloat. Putin has no choice but to choose war to keep oil afloat.

I don’t think missiles will fly across continents (thank God!)

But I do think that the US will be forced to rebuild it’s military particularly it’s Navy. Western Europe might even be forced to do the same.

We are looking roughly at the US-China-India allied over cheap oil, vs. Russia-Iran-Saudi, with Europe on the sidelines. Georgia is merely the first point, but others will follow.

As a practical matter, I don’t think we can free Georgia. Too far, Turkey likely to be too intimidated, Russia too good for now in copying how the US fights, close to their supply lines. Long term, though, the US has many advantages.