Those who diminish the threat in this situation must remember the obvious:

NK doesn’t have anything to lose by war. South Korea, China, Japan, the US will do almost anything to avoid war.

Now the guy with nothing to lose has nukes.

Everyone is afraid of him. Everyone is tiptoeing around trying to avoid provocation. He has everyone by the short hairs.

Remember, he has nothing to lose, much to gain no matter what happens. Everyone else has much to lose no matter what.

If they shot at an american or japanese or south korean ship, would there be a response? Probably not. If they fired some artilery rounds in Seoul, what would happen? Nothing. If the launched a missile into Japan, what would happen? Nothing.

Oh, the international community would be very very upset. But restraint would be counselled. And heeded.

What exactly does North Korea, Iran and anyone else watching have to lose?

Obama has shown two tendancies. First is to try to outwait his opponent. Second is to focus on his image first.

Interesting times. Extraordinarily dangerous.

Derek