I love a rational discussion Wadeusaf and Mike Sylwester.

Upon the recommendation of Mehlis, based on the info in the report you site, two Lebanese and a Syrian were arrested. The two Lebanese were members of Sunni Fundamentalist group.

Those arrests and interrogations lead to the arrests of the four generals and pointing the finger at President Lahoud and the Syrian Government. They admitted buying the phone cards.

Interestingly, those three were released from prison in March without a clear explanation, and have since disappeared. That was long before Belmare called for releasing the generals.

Now we hear this evidence about Hizbullah purchasing phones.

The point was well made regarding Wissam Eid. Why did that information take this long before it appeared.

Wissam Eid was investigating the murder of the Operations Chief of the Lebanese army, Hajj, when he got killed. Hajj led the offensive on the Al-Qaida guys, Fath Al Islam, in Nahr Al Bared, and they had threatened revenge. It is almost certain his death is not related to this story. He is believed to have found evidence regarding Hajj’s death, and died while trying to deliver it to court.

Again who would have that kind of detailed info to intercept that delivery?

This is so convoluted; it makes the most experienced heads spin.

As far as cooperation is concerned and the UN reports, they made my head spin. At one point Syria is not cooperating, another they are fully cooperating, then not… Then we have a list of seven states, including the Saudi Arabia, US and Israel that are accused of hiding info, etc.

Election propaganda is not beyond rational conclusion. Certainly the timing is suspect.

But, the more important question is: Why exonerate the Syrians? That is were the focus should be. If Hizbullah’s opponents in Lebanon are the one’s introducing this story, aren’t these supposed to be Anti-Syrian? They could have accused Hizbullah and kept Syria on the hook very easily. Why let off? Something to consider in this tangled web.

You are right about the size of Lebanese Army. It is very well trained and capable. It can be enlarged, but more importantly it requires a serious modernization and upgrade of its weapons. So far we have we have had the insane “vicious circle” argument. No one will arm the Lebanese Army before it disarms Hizbullah, and it cannot disarm Hizbullah without being properly armed.
Cohesion is not a problem. Soldiers of all sects are hard-line “Lebanese” and committed to the unity of the country. The Nahr Al Bared war proved that beyond doubt. Sunni fundamentalists tested the Mantel of the Lebanese Army and people in 2007, believing that if they fight in the name of Sunni Islam, they will split the Army and get the Sunni majority in the North on their side. The Army became even more united, and the Sunni support for the Army was even more intense than others. Shiites all fell behind the army too.

If these were Shiite fundamentalists the reaction would have very similar. The overwhelming majority of the population is dead opposed to any internal fighting, the futility of which they have experienced first hand.

Hizbullah knows the sentiment of its public. At the onset of the Bared war, Hizbullah proclaimed attacking the camp a red line, not because it likes the Sunnis, but because they feared setting an example and proving what it already know that the Army will not fall apart.

It later changed its tune and began to sing praises to the Army.

It has recently changed their tune to repeatedly claim it will lay down its weapons when the Army is capable to defend the South. Of course they are hoping the world will continue to deny Lebanon that capability. But, if the world surprises them, they will have a hard time making an argument.

A direct military confrontation will only give Hizbullah the necessary propaganda tools and get the Shiites to band together. If the Army is properly equipped and capable of securing the South – and the international community puts enough pressure on Israel to stop violating Lebanon’s airspace several times a day, resolve the Shebaa farms issue politically, etc. – then Hizbullah’s argument for its weapons will disappear. The majority of Shiites who prefer the Army and peaceful coexistence, and who do not feel threatened will no longer support its arms.

It will be disarmed without destroying the country. It may take some time, but save a lot of lives, etc.

This is Hizbullah’s greatest fear. And, they will do anything to avoid it. Wars are what keep them alive.

35 years of war – 45 in South Lebanon – are enough to make anyone tired.

Cadmus