Back in 1963, when if as I recall, the postwar German birthrate was at an all time high, almost no one would have believed this demographic collapse would happen. But that turnabout also illustrates the danger of projecting trends indefinitely.

A lot of things could change. Unfortunately they depend on largely unforseeable developments. Just as 2003 would have shocked the Germans, so too will 2048 be a wild an unfamiliar place. Several possibilities may occur. A revolution in robotics, energy sources and biotechnology may obviate, practically overnight, all the trends we decry today. Or a new era in nuclear terrorism and state control may usher in a new dark age. But at all events fortune favors the bold. Whether the 21st century becomes the brightest or the bloodiest century in history depends in large part on our willingness to act freely, humanely and decisively. In the coming decades charlatans, dictators and self-proclaimed prophets will arise. They always do. And each will tempt us with some sort of paradise in exchange for freedom.

But demagogues are really ignorant but brilliant marketers. We’ll always do better by applying common sense and reason than subscribing to fads and cults. The one is the response of the free individual. The other of the madding crowd.