@Cannoneer No. 4:
PSYOP. The whole Russian invasion of Georgia was PSYOP aimed at intimidating all the former Soviet republics and Warsaw Pact members.
If their desired hard advantages are/were (1) a safe naval port (Sukhimi) and (2)defacto control over Trans-Caucasus pipelines, this (3), PSYOPS, is both larger and in service to the smaller goals.
@Lifeofthemind:
For your lovely plan to work it would demand sustained cooperation between Azeris, Georgians, Armenians and the Turks
Hmm, by focusing on specific stakeholders, you’re convincing me the “lovely” plan is an exciting possibility…
1: GEORGIA-AZERBAIJAN:
They are ALREADY cooperating on a number of pipeline projects! THEY ARE IN LOVE, BABY!!! They *need* each other existentially. That’s TROOLY-True Love when your alternatives are the Persians or The Bear.
Score: +1
2: ARMENIA:
Armenians are not now [and will not soon be] involved.
The one issue with the Armenians is keeping Russian troops based in Gyumri from moving on Georgia’s East. Turkey is a NATO country and Turkey needs the Gruzinii-Azerii axis to free itself of Russian-Persian domination.
Every one of the dozens of Trans-Caucasus pipeline proposals (there is a lot of competition for “Silk Road” pipeline proposals) I’ve noticed (using Google and then diving in) being touted are Armenia-free and differ only in whether they terminate in Southern Turkey or the Georgian Black Sea. Just take a good look at the Lesser Caucasus range; that’ll make explanation superfluous.
Score (for absence of Armenian involvement) +1
3: KURDISTAN:
What? Other than the PKK doing minor, temporary damage, have Kurds anywhere shut down any Arab or Turkish pipeline? If “No” is the wrong answer, please do tell me how so.
The newest trans-Caucasus pipeline enters Turkey and runs straight Southerly into Erzurum, thence to the Mediterranean. Even though it skirts around Kurdistan (Lake Van) it hasn’t seen any big knockouts. In general, Black Sea coastal Turkey is not populated by Kurds, no?
Anyway, ALL the players in this drama are Turkic peoples (no Kurds, whose language is Indo-Iranian), with the sole exception of the Georgians. Gruzinii (Georgians in Russkii-style patois) have already figured out that they can deal to advantage with any friggin’ Turks they’ve ever seen, whether in Anatolia or around the Caspian.
Score: 0 (a wash)
CHINA:
Sure they are stuck with playing The Game, for NOW. They can’t mount a military challenge to the current monopolists, so they deal–albeit at a distinct disadvantage. That is why they would possibly be enthusiastic guarantors of any relatively cheap way to keep those damned Czarist soliviki out of their pocketbooks.
Russia and Persia want to extract a surcharge on anything sold to either China or the West, and everyone knows it, including the Caspiskii who are getting astronomically screwed by the Russians. The ‘stans can quadruple their pay while cutting China’s or Ukraine’s prices in half, according to supposedly knowledgeable people. I think it is reasonable to assume that we can both vastly improve income going to the ‘stans AND cut prices to Les Chinoise and the free world.
Chinese competing with Bulgaria, et al, on producers’ prices will do much better than if they have to pay a Russian or Persian surcharge. A free market for Central Asian oil and gas will tend to encourage peaceful cooperation, more predictable prices, and a broader–more equitable–distribution of risk throughout. This contrasts sharply with the present Russian-dominated “Great Game” of Imperialist Market Chokeholders.
Score: +2, (a lot of money and a lot of muscle)
RUSSIA:
“innovation Putin brought to this game”
Putin is stuck in a bad dilemma, and he’s stuck with the outdated tools of Czarist mobster-style, feudalistic oppression. The Commies never came up with a better system, merely a vastly more ruthless version of the Same Old Stuff. He’s a high-level mobster. Mobsters die quickly (at other mobster’s hands) when their intended victims pull together and fight back. “The Godfather” is a cute fairytale with a great soundtrack, right? So too, is Czarist control of the Trans-Caucasus and the Caspian, [I say].
Score: 0 (a wash)
Total score:
+4 out of possible plus or minus 5
(yes, I rigged it, just like Pooty-Tooty-Baby thought he rigged the outcome of his invasion of Georgia; mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa…)
Seriously, wanna bet? Let’s open a futures market on it.
OK, how much would you bet that if we keep a “Silk Road” based on a free Georgia open, that Putin will live past New Year’s day, 2010?
50:50?
20:80?
Mmm-hmmm, thought so. So, umm, is this worth a struggle to find out if it works? I’d say, YES, we can bet on it.
