I was recently a participant in a “wargame” similar to the old game of Diplomacy. The organizer had rewritten it to reflect his veiw of the current situation in the Mid-East/South Asia.
The situation was that Iran was on the brink of testing an atomic weapon when word leaked out (assumed date; 2010ish). We were given our national situation and overall objectives and then turned loose.
The Israeli player, seeing the decline of support from the US, UN and EU decided that his best interests lay with China/India. Technology exchanges and areas of interest were agreed upon.
This coalition lead to Saudi Arabia joining hands with Pakistan and Iraq, shouting about the Jewish-Buddhist Alliance but eyeing the Iranian-Syrian axis.
The Iranians-Syrians caused a great deal of trouble with their proxies and managed to neuter Turkey (it fell into a civil-war situation between the Islamists and the Army) and Egypt.
Finally the Israeli-Chinese-Indians said enough was enough and struck a deal wherein they would eliminate Iranian and Pakistani nuke capability, India would take over portions of the dismembered Pakistan, China would move into Iran to “oversee relief efforts and ensure civil peace”. The Saudi-Paki-Iraqi alliance was broken when the ICI coalition threatened to destroy Mecca but promised no harm to the other members if they sat quietly by while peace was imposed.
The US was entirely marginalized by the lack of political will and the tangled web of commitments. The UN and EU made unhappy sounds but did nothing.
Israel and China destroyed (via conventional and nuclear assets) the Iranian nukes, Israel and India took Pakistan’s. China moved into Iran to provide “humanitarian relief”, India moved into the NWT to impose law and a new Baluchistam was made from areas sliced away from Pakistan and Iran. Syria was “reduced” with portion given to a newly cleansed Lebanon and other bits tossed to Iraq and Turkey to keep them on board.
I (I was Turkey) spent most of my time trying to regain control of my country and found in the end that Kurdistan had appeared on my eastern flank. I was forced to recognize them.
It was entirely plausible and not a little frightening. I hope somebody in DC is doing the same thing and thinking carefully about outcomes.
