Gordon, that is most decidedly NOT the case in Yemen. Or Pakistan (3.58). Or Bangladesh 3.08. Or Chad (5.43). All these countries have experienced GAINS in both wealth and urbanization. Yet all have rates ABOVE steady-state replacement.

Besides, even if your assumption is true, as Steyn points the demographic “winner” is last man standing. If Muslim birth rates decline less faster than Europeans, they REPLACE Europeans, making Europe merely Yemen with a colder climate. Which has profound implications for the US and the world, not least in trade and economic growth.

Other than oil and gas, Muslim nations produce nothing of interest to the US or other developed countries, other than terrorism and jihad. Replacing a wealthy, consuming Europe with a cold and rainy Yemen exporting jihad around the globe means a huge chunk of wealth in the world just disappears. A strangling effect on world trade, including China and Japan which export considerable amounts of goods and services to Europe as well as ourselves. Not to mention the headache of constant, European-based jihad.

Naturally a poorer globe means naked resource grabs rather than trade.