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By Richard Fernandez

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Russia calls a halt

August 12, 2008 - 4:11 am - by Richard Fernandez
whiskey
2008-08-12 13:08:46

I think it’s significant that Medvedev announced this, not Putin.

I have been impressed by the way in which Russia fought: like the US, high-tempo, combined arms, very fast, and in a very “un-Russian” way. This is not Zhukov moving millions of men on a broad front. Or Chuikov embracing the German Army in a brutal, hand-to-hand urban combat. It is something entirely new for Russia, and as Wretchard says, difficult.

It is quite likely they need to pause to resupply, bring in fresh troops, and come up with a plan to cross the river.

So far, Putin’s objective has not been reached: control over the pipeline and increasing the world price of oil north of $145 a barrel.

Does anyone think, seriously, that Putin would launch such a major military invasion on behalf of S. Ossetia, or Russian nationalism, or flags waving, or anything like that? Please. Putin doesn’t care about the Georgian President, or liberty and democracy, one way or another. High oil prices and the ability to pay his thugs every month, yes.

Putin and Russia don’t care about the Stock Market. They’ve chased off foreign direct investment and seized joint venture after joint venture to take the cash and pay their thugs. The Russian Stock Market BEFORE Georgian Adventures fell to 22% of it’s value from the prior year! That Russia cares at all about world opinion is a laughable fantasy out of Obama. That nations are afraid of Putin is in the eyes of Russians, a good thing.

Likely, an operational pause, encirclement of the Georgian Army and wiping it out (you KNOW the Russian generals lust for that), THEN Putin achieving his War Aims: control over the Pipeline (and likely dismantling it) and world oil prices go over $145 a barrel.

Putin didn’t spend all this cash (which could have gone to his thugs) just to achieve a “moral victory.” He needs oil high and the pipeline in ruins. Which are in fact, related and the same thing. He won’t stop until he gets it: just ask the widow of Vladimir Litvinenko.