I think that Georgia needs to tiptoe a bit right now, even though they are still smarting from the hard slaps to the face and buttocks.
Russia would love to have the legitimate pretext to finish the job and eventually swallow Georgia whole. All they need is for Georgia to visibly continue to strenuously resist. Georgia needs to “tap out” at some point.
That doesn’t mean that their elected leadership needs to step down, and “demiliterization” is an unrealistic demand; almost Versailles-like in its humiliation.
It is possible that the Russians are making unreasonable demands in order to claim justification in further violent domination of Georgia.
Before declaring a “no fly zone” or any other statement of principle, we need to very seriously consider our ability to make good on our promises and what the end result of a Russian test of those principles will be.
Why would we not expect the Russians to assert their own version of a “Monroe Doctrine” in the Caucausus when we clearly will not tolerate Russian bombers or missiles in Cuba?
Again, we must examine our motives and the results of casting our support about in areas that we lack the endurance to fool with.
Does the fat kid with the heavy hands really want to dance with the bear? The fat kid hits really hard, but he wheezes after a little effort.
The more often we make bellicose noises without the will to back them up, the less credible we become. Russia is poking us in the eye indirectly, but it is our own fault.
The Georgians should be counseled strongly to show restraint and document any further Russian advances into Georgia. Russia is waiting for the right “provocation” with which to justify finishing the job and treating Saakashvili as we did Saddam Hussein. They are already making the same noises that we did towards Iraq.
And they will point to our invasion of Iraq as their justification.
We, and the Georgians, should tread lightly and avoid giving the Russians the pretext.
Once the Russians have backed off a bit and settled down some, the casualties that they sustained will be questioned by the families and the delayed pressure from within will discourage another strong thrust. However, that reaction is always delayed in Russia. Stirring them further while they have a head of steam up and no back-pressure from their own public is a very dangerous position to be in for both Georgia and for NATO.








