This appears to be far from over, indicated by the fact that it is Medvedyev who made the announcement. I suspect Russia decided to cash its chips. It will likely demand removal of Saakashvili, but only as a starting position. They realise that the demand is pointless, as he is likely to fall from power in the aftermath, whether through elections or not. I do not expect Russian troops to move anywhere north of their current positions, until they get the agreement from the west. They will likely settle for non-aggression obligation by Georgia (effectively giving Russia) complete control of SO and Abkhazia and an agreement with US and EU not to ship certain weapons to Georgia and not base their weapons there. Until this agreement is attained, Russian troops are likely to remain where they are.
In the mid-term this will prevent any action against Iran, as Russia will effectively be holding Georgia hostage, and can at any point restart the operation. Forces are likely to remain in the region for “protection” of Ossetians and further “humanitarian aid”. Also, it will now be impossible to use Georgian territory for any war plans against Iran.
In the long term, this is disastreous for Russia. Any opposition to missile shield, and joining of NATO by Ukraine and Georgia has been eliminated. If anything Russian actions will have the opposite effect, by making everyone run towards US. Russia can also kiss good-bye to WTO and billions of investment. The extent of quite punitive actions EU will enact highly demands on oil prices and whether they continue to fall.








