What Russia is doing now is trying to collect the victor’s spoils through an agent, in this case the EU. Since Georgia gave the EU a power of attorney, so to speak, Sarkozy has considerable leeway. But as a practical matter Sarkozy can’t go too far, and is intelligent enough to know it. I doubt Sarkozy has the outright power to demobilize the Georgian Army or force Saakashvili out of office; at least not without shredding the Georgian constitution.

More likely, Sarkozy will try to put together a package he thinks will fly with both sides and then fly to Tbilisi to iron out the doubtful points. There’s some danger that Sarkozy will be played for a patsy, and the negotiations used to play for time until more supplies, etc can be brought up. Maybe UN recon missions should be authorized by the Security Council to make sure there isn’t any landgrabbing on the sides.

But in any event, there is some chance that no agreement will be reached. And then what?