“The defeat of Georgia is a fait acompli.”
I don’t want the fighting to go on for a moment more, but just academically, why is the Russian occupation of Georgia a fait accompli? When Russia went into Afghanistan it wasn’t the end, but the beginning. The Russians have advanced 18 miles from Tskhinvali to Gori. For comparison, it was 275 miles from the Kuwaiti border to Baghdad and when US forces got there, everyone said it was going to be Stalingrad. Yet it’s clear that toppling Saddam was the easy part. FWIW, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan began with an elaborate cover story, requests for “assistance” in “liberating” the inhabitants from an unpopular local leader. It took all of two weeks. But it wasn’t over.
On December 7, 1979, the Soviet advisors to the Afghan Armed Forces advised them to undergo maintenance cycles for their tanks and other crucial equipment. Meanwhile, telecommunications links to areas outside of Kabul were severed, isolating the capital. With a deteriorating security situation, large numbers of Soviet airborne forces joined stationed ground troops and began to land in Kabul on December 25th. Simultaneously, Amin moved the offices of the president to the Tajbeg Palace, believing this location to be more secure from possible threats. According to Colonel General Tukharinov and Merimsky, Amin was fully informed of the military movements, having requested Soviet military assistance to northern Afghanistan on December 17th.[25][26] His brother and General Babadzhan met with the commander of the 40th Army before Soviet troops entered the country, to work out initial routes and locations for Soviet troops.[27]
On December 27, 1979, 700 Soviet troops dressed in Afghan uniforms, including KGB OSNAZ and GRU SPETSNAZ special forces from the Alpha Group and Zenith Group, occupied major governmental, military and media buildings in Kabul, including their primary target – the Tajbeg Presidential Palace.
That operation began at 19:00 hr., when the Soviet Zenith Group destroyed Kabul’s communications hub, paralyzing Afghan military command. At 19:15, the assault on Tajbeg Palace began; As planned, president Hafizullah Amin was killed. Simultaneously, other objectives were occupied (e.g. the Ministry of Interior at 19:15). The operation was fully complete by the morning of December 28, 1979.
The Soviet military command at Termez, Uzbek SSR, announced on Radio Kabul that Afghanistan had been “liberated” from Amin’s rule. According to the Soviet Politburo they were complying with the 1978 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Good Neighborliness and Amin had been “executed by a tribunal for his crimes” by the Afghan Revolutionary Central Committee. That committee then elected as head of government former Deputy Prime Minister Babrak Karmal, who had been demoted to the relatively insignificant post of ambassador to Czechoslovakia following the Khalq takeover, and that it had requested Soviet military assistance. [28]
Soviet ground forces, under the command of Marshal Sergei Sokolov, entered Afghanistan from the north on December 27th. In the morning, the 103rd Guards ‘Vitebsk’ Airborne Division landed at the airport at Bagram and the deployment of Soviet troops in Afghanistan was underway. The force that entered Afghanistan, in addition to the 103rd Guards Airborne Division, was under command of the 40th Army and consisted of the 108th and 5th Guards Motor Rifle Divisions, the 860th Separate Motor Rifle Regiment, the 56th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, the 36th Mixed Air Corps. Later on the 201st and 58th Motor Rifle Divisions also entered the country, along with other smaller units.[29] In all, the initial Soviet force was around 1,800 tanks, 80,000 soldiers and 2,000 AFVs. In the second week alone, Soviet aircraft had made a total of 4,000 flights into Kabul.[30] The Soviet force rose with the arrival of the two later divisions to over 100,000.
I don’t know that the Georgians are as tough as the Afghans, who are pretty tough. But I don’t think they are dead yet. The Russians will have to keep at it a bit longer.
