After extrapolating Russian War aims in Georgia (re-adsorbtion in Russian hegemony, installation of puppet government, control of Central Asian oil, intimidation of other former parts of USSR), what is the fallout of the eventual defeat and adsorbtion of Georgia?
1) Turkey is on the way to being “Finlandized”. Iran, aligning itself with Russia on one flank, Russia (now back in Georgia, and Georgia back in the US, back in the USSR!) on the other, and NATO exposed as an empty bag. If Turkey had been admitted to the EU, if Georgia had joined NATO, if, if…
But the world is spinning away from that now.
Europe is about to be punished for sleepwalking through the last 15 years. Who won the Cold War?
2) A lot of new pressure to be put on Iraq in 2009 by ….Russia! They were a client state before, and the bazaar mentality of the Arab will make them play off the US vs. Russia to get the “best deal” for themselves. Unhappy people, they will be if they get what they ask for. And al-Maliki and company are just stupid enough to do that.
I expect there to be quite a few very bitter Americans in a few years (including me) when we see what happens between the Iraqis and the Russians.
3) China is the wild card. Will they align themselves with Russia? Will the Russians be shrewd enough to guarantee them all the oil they want from the new oil ‘empire’ they are building? If the Russians try to put the Chinese over the oil barrel to get them to perform as they wish, perhaps the Chinese will remember that the US is a pretty good trading partner.
4) Western Europe is on vacation at the moment, and will decline to do anything of note here, except blame the US for ‘meddling’ in Georgia and provoking Russia. They will pay any price to keep the peace, as it were. And the danegeld will get larger every year, from here on out.
5) Hard to tell what Eastern Europe will do. Some of them have some backbone, but if NATO is well and truly emasculated, then they may all quietly make their Separate Peace with Russia.
The defeat of Georgia is a fait acompli. There is nothing the US could or should do now except try and minimize the brutality, bloodshed and the expected ‘ethnic cleansing’ of parts of Georgia by the ‘loyal allies’ of Russia. Withdrawing behind the rampart of the Lesser Caucausus with their brave but pocket sized army will do nothing for the thousands of civilians who will be behind the Russian lines, and subject to ‘cleansing’. It will happen, if you understand the Slavic mentality at all.
We need to get some kind of neutral ‘third parties’ on the ground to assess the situation and at least inform the world with some objective reporting, as the new Iron Curtain begins to fall over that part of the world.
