NATO is a dead institution. It has as much relevance as the Holy Roman Empire.
More to the point, to be clear, I don’t think Turkey will care much if the Russians move over their border temporarily to wipe out the Georgians. The Georgians are not their friends and Russia *is* a mutual friend (of Iran) as well as the big man in the neighborhood. If John Gotti leaps over your backyard fence to whack one of his underbosses, you suddenly have an attack of blindness.
Putin can rely on existing demand for oil which in the short term is inelastic. He faces long term risks, but relatively few short term ones. As long as he keeps the money flowing in to his thugs, he does not have any risk domestically. He’s immune to the pressures that undid George Bush. He kills his critics in the Press, he cares zilch about the international community, and pays off the only men who matter in Russia — his thugs. He can easily sustain 50% losses of his combat troops because he is a mini-Stalin.
Similarities to Korea? Not much — Russia has thousands of nukes and can hand off deniable ones to Osama. THAT is a trump card. So America in Georgia is impotent. But Iran can be made a counter-example of. Which would make statements and unmistakeable ones at that, while crossing off our own to-do list and eliminating an enemy.
It IS America alone. That much is certain.
[Doing "financial things against Russia" is like Canute with the Sea. Russia has oil. It's expensive. Everyone needs it short-term. Demand is not elastic -- you still have to get to work, ships/planes need to run. There will ALWAYS be willing/desperate buyers.]
“Their economic future is in the West.” — not true Wretchard. Turkey’s exports to Europe are declining, they will never be admitted to the EU, and their future is in the Gulf, particularly Iran which needs cheap Muslim labor and Turkish contractors. As Islamists, and therefore anti-Westerners, Turkey’s leadership will not allow any proxy warfare against Russia who they view as an ally against decadent Western consumerism, etc. Besides Georgia is collapsing faster than France in May 1940. There simply is not any will to fight. Westerners with any amount of money and modern life don’t fight — that’s the domain of tough, un-modern outsiders. Like Russians, Afghans, or the uber-professional US military, in many ways an outsider to Modern American consumerist society with it’s liberalist certainties. Fear and brutality are not everything, nor are they unbeatable, but they always win against liberal doubt.
Wretchard, I love ya but you’re just completely wrong here.
