This leaves Georgia’s border with Turkey as a base of support. Yet, this is tricky for Georgia because of the historic hostility between Orthodox Christians and Islam. Russia will almost certainly claim that Georgia’s president has become a puppet of the Turks, which is precisely why Georgia is so desperate for western aid. Even if aid is routed through Turkey, the aid must not be perceived in the Caucasus as Turkish in origin lest Russia gain an important propaganda point.

There are two contexts here. One is the Cold War. The other is the Great Game. Those rivalries will be pursued, now and into the future, no matter what. History will not stop. Russia will not cease to exist. Nor will China, Turkey, India and Iran. Nor will the United States. But their rivalries cannot jump the levees and plunge the world into a World War. We can compete without world wars.

Like 1914. Nothing the Georgians can do of their own accord will amount to much. But neither could events in the Balkans until the Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated there. That pulled in one guarantor after the other and the Western Front ensued. There were miscalculations everywhere for two reasons. Nobody understood where the bright lines were and where they led. Second, policy makers got stampeded. Right now NATO is far further forward, much stronger comparatively and much better positioned than it was in the Cold War. This provides options. Allows patience. Let’s the West fight the Long Game. And the Long Game allows these things to be fixed patiently without recourse to 1914s.