I have written in previous comments that we should spend a lot more effort analyzing the intrigues, manipulations and aspirations of the Ossetians and stop trying to attribute all developments in this crisis only to the Russians and Georgians. The Ossetians themselves have been driving much of these developments, because the Ossetians want to take control of their own nation’s future.

Here are some excerpts from an article published by the Jamestown Foundation on Thursday, August 7, a few hours before the crisis began.

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373294

Military tension in Georgia’s separatist region of South Ossetia has been building up for several months. In June … military clashes were happening on an almost daily basis …. Last week the tension escalated into clashes that left at least six Ossetians dead and dozens of Ossetians and Georgians wounded. ….

The latest outbreak of hostilities began on July 31 after two roadside bombs hit a Georgian police Toyota SUV near the Georgian village of Eredvi. Six Georgian policemen were wounded. …. The road leading to Eredvi was built by the Georgians to bypass Ossetian roadblocks near the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. ….

The roadside bomb attack on July 31 was followed the next day by bloody clashes. …. The Ossetians admitted six dead and 15 wounded, many hit by sniper fire. The Georgians admitted nine wounded. ….

The Ossetians began an evacuation of women and children to North Ossetia, called for volunteers from the North Caucasus to join the fight against Georgia, and threatened to attack Georgian cities and to cleanse the Georgian forces out of South Ossetia. The South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity claimed that Georgians living in South Ossetia were begging to be “liberated” from the forces of the regime in Tbilisi.

Kokoity has announced that some 300 volunteers have arrived in South Ossetia to fight the Georgians and that more are coming. Most of the “volunteers” seem to be South Ossetians that were serving in police and other militarized formations in North Ossetia and were sent south as reinforcements. ….

Yesterday the Ossetians were reporting fierce battles with Georgian forces, while Georgian authorities and Russian peacekeepers reported only shooting incidents in which no one was injured.

The Ossetian authorities have announced the cancellation of a planned meeting with the Georgian side in Tskhinvali on August 7, while the Russian Foreign Ministry said that it believed the meeting had to go ahead. …. The Ossetians insist that it is getting worse. …..

A public gap has opened between the Ossetian and Russian authorities. The South Ossetian spokeswoman Irina Gagloyeva has publicly expressed dismay: “War is coming, but everyone, including Russia, is turning a blind eye. Russian statements are not helping us.”

If the Ossetians succeed in provoking a major confrontation, they will be in trouble. Tskhinvali is semi-surrounded by Georgian positions and is virtually indefensible. To prevent the fall of Tskhinvali thousands of Russian troops with hundreds of pieces of armor must invade South Ossetia through the Rokki tunnel and be rushed forward. High casualties are possible and this would be a clear act of aggression.

Kokoity and other Ossetian officials seem to be bent on provoking a major Russian intervention, but apparently not everyone in Moscow is ready to plunge headlong into war.