The Russians have to get rid of Saakashvili for demolishing morale and the Georgian government. Then they can install their puppet, probably the guy that Saakashvili had imprisoned last year and then released without charges. If Georgia can hold out for two months the Roki Tunnel shuts down due to weather. Russians will only have what they brought into the east. These troops that have invested in Senaki, Poti and Abkhazia came over the rail in Abkhazia that they just repaired.

I agree the long tail is vulnerable and only one good road for heavy armor in S. Ossetia to the Roki Tunnel. They plan to resupply from Poti.

The port of Batumi is still in Georgian hands and is guarded by a Turkish frigate that I believe that the Russian have not challenged or bothered.

Russian does not have the army we have and it has older equipment. They have to have a fast resolution. If that is denied then Stingers and Javelins can help a lot taking out Russian armor and air cover.

The Russians are not as strong as they were 20 years ago and we have the best fighting army today that is battle tested. Our equipment is light years above the Russians. However it was too expensive for Georgian’s to purchase and we are not that charitable.

The anti aircraft that Georgians had is probably ineffective since the Georgian radars were bombed. The Russians knew those exact locations. So it will be shoulder and truck fired weapons left to use.