Turkey has had long historical antagonisms with Russia. They will triangulate up to a point, but they don’t want to see a dominant Russia. Their economic future is in the West. Turkey wants to keep Georgia in existence as a buffer state. It will probably do anything short of war to keep Georgia in existence. But Turkey needs cover. Therefore it must act in concert with NATO or the US to do something. What that ‘something’ constitutes is the whole nub of this problem.
Cold War Rule Number 1: no direct conflicts between superpowers.
Cold War Rule Number 2: proxy warfare is allowed.
Together they mean that the US is allowed to arm its proxies to fight a Russian occupation of Georgia. This is what the Sovs did in Vietnam when the US entered it directly. This is what America did in Afghanistan when Russia entered it directly. I submit that this is the obvious candidate of what America will do now that Russia has opted to invade Georgia. Russia will eventually occupy Georgia, but the Georgians will have a government in exile, perhaps in Turkey. And the fight will go simply because Georgia is a country distinct from Russia and has been through this before. During the time of the Czars, and against the Bolshies, I think, in 1921.
So in the short term we must persuade Russia not to take this drastic step. It’s stupid. But if the Russian assault continues, they will have yet another war on their southern marches and a new cold war on top of that.








