We’ve been here before. A large force swarms across an international border in a surprise attack against a state run by a US educated President with good press in the American media. They have an overwhelming advantage in armor. The forces are driven back until they only occupy a small pocket. The US President has been caught off guard outside of Washington. He then crafts a policy which doesn’t escalate into full-blown war but nevertheless sends a signal that America won’t back down.

That is Korea, 1950. The President was Syngman Rhee. The “last stand” pocket was Pusan. The President Harry Truman, who was vacationing in Independence, Missouri. What followed was the Korean War. It was designed as a stalemate, a fact the commanding General, Douglas MacArthur didn’t understand. No matter. It worked.

Bush has fewer options. The Black Sea is a not open to US naval power. But America has a continuous corridor of allies leading from the Gulf (Iraq, Turkey) to Georgia’s border. That wouldn’t have been there if Saddam had been in power. My, how strangely history works. So Bush, while he cannot say, like Truman, “where are the carriers?” (And remember Truman was abolishing the Navy in favor of the Air Force at the time) has options.

What can we learn from history? One, that we must pick a realistic fallback position and hold. Two, that we must have calibrated patience. We must have strategic vision. We must also remember that we won’t have an easy time of it. The Reds were as active in the 1950s as they are today. The more things change, the more they stay the same.