By refusing to surrender the Georgians have done two things. Changed the subject and invited Putin to bet his presidency and even his regime on what he does next. This has long stopped being about South Ossetia and is now about the territorial integrity of Georgia. Second, entering into this high stakes Casino will mean that Putin must effectively bet his political shirt, Russia’s international reputation, it’s gas contracts, the whole ball of wax, to play.

If I were Putin I’d declare victory and go home. But I’m not Putin.