This is 19th century politics. Power politics by Russia using all political/ economic/military forces to gains and control resources. I said from the first day this was about control over Caspian oil and imposing control of the BZC pipeline. Russian tried to bomb the pipeline near Tbilisi 51 times according to news reports. They missed the vent according to BP. Russia wants to be the new OPEC for Europe gas and oil supplier. This makes EU amenable to Russian desires and political goals. They have stopped gas supplies in recent years using economic warfare to get their displeasure across. They did this to Poland I believe when it was first suggested they be a site for our ABM system.
Kurdish/ Turkey PPK with Russian influences damaged a valve in Ezbrium, Turkey on August 6th 2008; the oil flow was shut down from Baku because of this.
Russia just used S. Ossetia as the pretext to attack Georgia but they have been trying to provoke a Georgian response since April 2008. I found it interesting that Russia just completed repairs to the rail to Abkhazia with their Railroad Troops on July 31 and still had the troops there. Russia uses rail to move troops and armor to depots. So Russia had preposition troops in Abhazia and they had the build up in N. Ossetia for weeks of tanks and support.
It takes weeks to get LST and missile boats ready for a mission and they did launch naval vessels from Sevastopol to Georgia. This was no sudden reaction by the Russian but a planned attack.
Two things Russia wants are control of Caspian oil pipelines and humiliation of Georgia for daring to attempt to become member of NATO. They have tried to put their puppet leaders in power in both Ukraine and Georgia and failed in both cases. This is how they plan to get rid of President Saakashvili
If there is no serious response from the U.S. the next will be Ukraine from intimidation or setting up a similar situation with fomenting trouble from minority groups in Ukraine.
Russia has ambitions to gain back their republics and imperial regime. All Russians are on board for these goals. Europe has lapsed in passive mode by having no outside threat for over 50 years with America taking on the security measures. Europe will appease the Russians, they have no will to fight Russia with military force. NATO has degraded to symbolic or soft power as shown by the disgraceful performance of NATO countries in Afghanistan. Weakness on the western nations provoke adventurism by countries that what power or to regain old glory.
America has limited choices since we need Russian cooperation for supplies to get to Afghanistan since the Pakistan routes are gone dangerous due to Pakistan weaknesses.
If we do not get the North West Frontier in Pakistan under control we will lose Afghanistan and Pakistan. We are still tied up in Iraq and were working on Iran next. This screws the plan to reduce Iran’s nuclear technology.
Plus Georgia is hard place to get large amounts of troops and material. We can transit from Romania across the Black Sea but that is subject to interdiction. If we put naval forces through the Straits of Bosphorus into the Black Sea that can be interpreted to a direct threat against Russia and could propel us into a war with Russia with all the risk of a small war getting to be a large war since we could call on NATO to engage at that point. That could scare Russia into a nuclear threat. Do we want that?
This is a delicate position for the US. We have to do something to force Russia back and up the stakes but not too high. I think a naval force outside the Straits and get Turkey to put naval forces in the Black Sea like they have a ship outside the Georgian port of Batumi and the Russians have made no moves to threatening that port.
If we get Turkey’s permission we can do over flights from Incirlik to threaten Russian air cover. This may start a shooting incident but those can usually be smoothed over. But that would allow the Georgians better ability to fight the ground war if we provide CAP over Georgia.
Bush is a master poker player and his public behavior is no signal of what he plans. Cheney gave a serious admonition stating Russian aggression will not condoned. Just short of will not be tolerated which implies military response.
My guess is Cheney and Gates will be talking to Turkey. Turkey does not respect Rice and she is too easily pushed. Watch Turkey’s response in the next week or so if Georgia hangs on that long and Russia does not pullback into the Abkhazia and S Ossetia.
