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By Richard Fernandez

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August 10, 2008 - 7:27 pm - by Richard Fernandez
Eggplant
2008-08-11 09:34:43

I wonder if this Georgia conflict could evolve into a regional war of Russia versus former components of the Soviet Empire? The Ukraine and other ex-Soviet republics have indicated some willingness to help the Georgians against the Russians. Likewise the Turks and the Poles have considerable history in fighting against the Russians. I can easily see the Turks and Poles joining an anti-Russian alliance. It would make a certain amount of sense for the ex-Soviet republics to do this, i.e. we can either all be defeated one at a time or stand up and fight against the Russians as a single block. What worries me is that some of these countries are NATO members. One could counter-argue that NATO like the United Nations is a Cold War relic and past its expiration date. It’s not clear to me that it is in the strategic interests of the United States to be part of an anti-Russian alliance (Would it be desireable for China to be part of an anti-Russian alliance?). It would be a different story if the Russians were acting as a host for a global threat like International Communism or if the Russians were trying to control the world’s energy supply along the lines of what Saddam tried to do with Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, etc. There are nations out there that the United States should feel morally obligated to help in time of war, e.g. Canada, Australia, England, etc. However it is not clear to me that ex-Soviet Republics fall under this category.