Imagine what the settlement the American West would have been like if the American Indian tribes of the day had AK 47′s and cell phones. Imagine if they had shared a three or four common languages instead of hundreds and a single highly structured religion instead of a diffuse set of religious practices.

Now, remember, how long it took to pacify the tribes and settle them on reservations. It is unlikely that a Western model government in Afghanistan or Pakistan is likely to control all the ground in either country any time soon. Some kind of a federation of the tribes, as reflected in the periodic national councils, is certainly possible, and is probably more likely in Afghanistan than in Pakistan. Pakistan suffers from the imposition of the British model of government, which works well in a modern homogenous society but has not worked well in most Third World countries.

We see the familiar story in much of both countries that, “you own the ground you stand on” and maybe as far as you can see. The rest of the territory is debatable space.

Candidate Obama talked about invading Pakistan at will, a la the Cambodian incursions. (We were in Cambodia and Laos during the Viet Nam war unofficially long before we went in openly with armor and air.) He, or his advisors, had at least correctly identified Pakistan as a major part of the problem. How President Obama will actually accomplish this remains an open subject. Note that the use of air strikes into Pakistan, begun under Bush, continues under Obama, without much fanfare.

We are fortunate, so far, that Russia, China and Iran have not taken more active roles in stirring the pot. It is also interesting that no one seems to be taking the realpolitik path of setting up a strongman in Afghanistan or Pakistan and leaving them to rule with a heavy hand. (I agree, but the way: strong men haven’t worked out very well for us, although a number survive in the former Soviet Asian countries.)

Interesting times. I an concerned that the American government will insist on the perfect and reject the “good enough”.