Belmont Club

By Richard Fernandez

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August 10, 2008 - 7:27 pm - by Richard Fernandez
Aether
2008-08-11 07:42:06

I believe that Irregardless of the Bush administrations reaction, there will be important Geo-political and Diplomatic consequences for Russia.

Putin seems to have won a quick tactical victory in conquering S Ossetian and Abkhzia, and *appears* to be on the cusp of acheiving a strategic goal by re-integrating Georgia into the Russian fold, and controlling the Caucussian Oil.

BUT, They will face the following Geo-political fallout:

- The Russians have likely handed John McCain a victory in the US elections.

- Resurgence of the NATO Alliance.
Re-militarization of the NATO allies

- Ful NATO support for Missile Defense Sheild is a go

- Russia has provided the Bush administration with political and diplomatic cover for the upcoming military confrontation with Iran

I don’t belive that Bushes reaction will be to directly confront the Russians, as the US Military has a pretty full plate in Iraq, Afghanistan/Pakistan, and the pending action with Iran, and honestly America is not going to directly confront another Nuclear power without some GREAT provocation.