Saddam was also emboldened by reports of US fecklessness and ambivalence (and UN assurances) only to be summarily shocked and awed. The image that keeps popping up for me is that shot of the Russian diplomatic vehicles getting peppered leaving their Baghdad embassy. Whiskey’s point #3 is fair, but we did break an awful lot of freshly delivered Russian gear in Iraq in those initial weeks. Saddam miscalculated (or simply watched CNN), as did Germany, France, Russia and AQ, and for that matter the UN (IAEA, etc.). This, in many ways, is just an iteration of the original miscalculation they all made in Iraq – betting that the US will not come to the party. Russia stayed in Iraq to the bitter end (still there by proxy) partly out of their state of denial and pride – as well described above – but mostly because of the track record left by 19 unenforced UN resolutions. I don’t imagine the West will get to 19 this time (though Iran is getting close).