I really wish to comment about the ground situation but it seems important to set it in a strategic context, so… It seems to be ever more obvious that them Russkies intend to consolidate power in all of historical Abkhazia and Ossettia. They also are going to do it in the most deliberately abusive way possible in order to so humiliate the Georgians that they will accept a puppet regime.

Why? Kosovo, eh. NATO, yes. The pipeline mostly, I’d guess. Russia wants strategic control over Europe and over Central Asian Gas-Oil distribution. Perhaps they are planning to divvy it all up with the Persians if we don’t knock the Persians out of Central Asia for them.

Aside:
How can one explain T. Barnett babbling on and on about his not so stretchy little “Core” theory while simultaneously endorsing a 19th century Great Powers Game view? Has anyone ever made himself appear the dazed academic more pitifully? Sheesh.

I am generally ignorant of things military, but it does seem that our guys, e.g. US-Turkish-Eurowheenie-EasternEuro-BlackSea-Caspian states all share an interest in preventing aforementioned Russian monopoly on oil-gas supply as a matter of existential threat. BUT, until them thar Russkies have clearly proceeded to attack non-Abkhazian/non-Ossettian targets in Georgia, selling the necessity of intervention isn’t possible for any of our guys. Oh, boo.

Which brings us back to earth, specifically a huge valley between two huge mountain ranges, Georgia. Wrtechard must be spot on regarding the key importance of Gori for a quick Russkie “victory”.

For sea access to the West, Georgia depends on primarily on Poti in the middle, Sukhumi in the Abkhazian North (dominated from the East by the Kodori Gorge) and Batumi, recently turned over by the Russkies to Georgia, in the South.

Then there is one rail corridor: it climbs up past Kutasi, the terminus of the Eastern Czarist military road crossing the Greater Caucasus Mntns. That road goes thru Tkibuli and Oni, over the Mamison Pass into North Ossettia. Roughly comparable to Tora-Bora, but worse.

Another 100? miles, after a few mountainous climbs, the rail lines reach Gori after passing South Ossetia. Gori is the terminus of the other Czarist military road which passes through South Ossettia from the Roki tunnel.

Both roads converge in North Ossettia, a huge choke point.

Here’s the thing. South Ossettia is basically all the mountains north of the central, “flatter”, ethnically Georgian parts. If them thar Russkies control the skies, and armored assault against Gori would be painful as hell for them, but possibly unstoppable. But if they DON’T control the skies, well, I would bet on the Georgians being able to bring ‘em to a halt, and hang ‘em up by their… oh, you know.

Come Winter, it’ll be Finland all over again.

OK, you say, the Russkies can choke off Poti and even if NATO member Turkey does keep them away from Batumi, they will control the flatland rail routes (north around the “Lesser” Caucasus Mtns) so what good would Batumi do for Tbilisi?

Good Questions.The South Caucasus Pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum) heads from around Tbilisi, up over the “Lesser” Caucasus to Turkey on routes that almost certainly have roads whenever they lack rail, so defensible emergency land routes near and from Turkey are available.

It is my personal hope that this disgusting reversion to 19th Century Czarist Imperialism will not result in terrible suffering for the Georgians. If “we” do provide sufficient anti-aircraft support SOON ENOUGH, the Russkies can be tied down to the Ossettian mountains, perhaps to never get within 20 miles of the rail lines, let alone the pipeline.

Remember this, Georgia lost possibly 30,000 ethnic Georgians murdered by ethnic-Russian Abkhzians. At worst they are accused of killing several thousand Abkahzians in a terribly bitter civil war. I suspect that Vlad “Rootin’-Tootin’ Putin, has badly overstepped out of greed and a gambler’s eye for desperate measures.

In other words, this (yet again) is ours to lose. It is the Georgians to win. Afghanistan, Chechenya… step aside. Make way for the Georgians.

BUY GEORGIAN WINE!