CPT Charles:

Do keep in mind that Done Been Pooten is really a form of wannabe. He sits atop a kleptocracy and fancies himself as being the BBMFIC. In truth, the kleptocracy runs him, he does not run it.

The kleptocrats have lucked into a period of
heavy cash flow in their direction. Not being anywhere near as astute as some other mobsters have been, they do not know how to use their money to “go legit”. Thus they have found various and sundry ways of squandering what they have gained and are incessantly demanding more and more plunder to be provided them. Done Been Pooten gets to keep his job only so long as he can find means of giving them instant gratification
interpersed with diversion.

This leads to an interesting set of what I call “psycho-capabilities”. This occurs whenever people are physically capable of a variety of courses of action but are psychologically compelled to ignore all but one.

For this reason, Russia today is rather incoherent and reminds me of Imperial Japan
of the 1930s and onward. Their very incoherence was a critical enablement in the tactically successful attack on Pearl Harbor.
They had everybody looking the wrong way.

I rather imagine that current Russian incoherence was also in play over Georgia and also had folks looking the wrong way.

Cheerfully presuming that I have got this one right, the prudent man must consider an irrational Russian response at least somewaht probable no matter what we say or do.

For example, your suggestion to double down with a blocking force would be sure to back any sane person off. But you cannot rule out
Putin taking leave of his sense and attacking that force simply because his REAL concern is with an internal power struggle. I think that effort you propose is worth the risk but as you self-aoointed Two Sarge, I must say that said risk is a bit higher than you think.