wretchard:

The shorter the time scale, the more difficult it is to hide one’s actions to supply one side or another in a war. Russia knows that any cease-fire would allow Georgia to import a cornucopia of munitions on “lend-lease” terms, so there is little incentive for Russia to stop fighting now. Russia is winning right now. Unless Russia is dealt a military defeat, there may be little reason for Russia to stop fighting.

I think Russian victory in Georgia could potentially become for Greater Russia what the Franco-Prussian War was for Germany. Russia could go from strength to strength, annexing one pro-Russian territory after another to create a new Russian Empire. Prime Minister Putin appears to be successfully using ambiguity in the international customs for recognizing tiny states as a lever against Russia’s neighbors.

I regard any Russian Kosovo-Ossetia linkage to be an implicit abandonment of Kosovo and the Serbs living there to their fate under Albanian rule. The Russian Federation needs to consider carefully whether it ought to use Kosovo as an international precedent. Serbs should also watch Russia’s actions carefully.

Russia’s moves into Georgia are causing consternation in the Baltic. Despite Sweden’s claim that “a new war in the Caucasus is not in anyone’s interest”, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt’s recent statement about Russia’s justification for war in Georgia being used before by Adolf Hitler was hardly the friendliest statement he could have made about Russian behavior. Such a statement could hardly be regarded to be a sign of neutrality. Sweden is also supporting Finland’s Foreign Minister, Alexander Stubb, in his attempts to bring a cease-fire. Given that Alexander Stubb is known to favor Finland’s membership in NATO, any meeting between Mr. Stubb and Mr. Putin would be, shall we say, interesting.