Peace
I can not agree with your analysis.
Lets come from the assumption that Russia is not going to Tbilisi and is not going to occupy the whole Georgia.
Russia intents, as I see them:
1. To help Georgia to settle her issues with the separatist regions S. Ossetia and Abkhazia once and for good the way Russia likes it, namely to create conditions for their recognized (at least by Russia)independence from Georgia with possible further incorporation of the S. Ossetia into Russia.
2. Show of force? Yes. But not to the West, like you say. The West knows how strong/weak Russia is. All this is about showing Russia’s force and Russia’s readiness to use, Russia’s credibility to the former Soviet republics. To make them more carefull and attentive to Russia’s interests when they build their alliances with other countries.
3. The fall of Saakashvilly would be a desirable outcome for Russia,(looks like Putin hates him) but is not the primary goal. Because any Georgian government after, will stay anti-Russian and pro-Western.
4.Revenge for Kosovo? FALSE! Russia does not have any grievances about Kosovo. Russia objected Kosovo recognition to show her political support and solidarity with the Serbs. If Serbs have swallowed Kosovo, Russia does not care any longer. Of course Russia uses Kosovo as the precedent. The situation in the S. Ossetia is indeed pretty close to the one in Kosovo.
5. The oil pipeline belongs to the Western oil companies. By no means Russia would take it under her control. That would be a scandal.
6. To shake USA pre-voting company-this is laughable. Your pre-election campaign is the last thing Putin and any Russian is concerned of. You can elect Paris Hilton, or Silvester Stallone, or whoever you love.
Well, if the USA put a lot of interest in Georgia, than it can be the USA interests vs Russia interests struggle.But… Why you guys have your interests so far from your home? Just look: Iraq, Georgia… It just creates precedents. Why Russia may not have her interests in the same Georgia. It is a bordering country that was with Russsia fro 200 years.
