Not only does Karzai have to stand for election this year, he was thwarted in his effort to move the elections up to April.
His term ends on May 22 and it is going to be a long, hot summer until the presidential elections on August 20, as the constitutional presidency of Afghanistan stands vacant.

A legitimacy crisis in Afghanistan can only hinder our efforts to institute an effective COIN program. The Obama administration chose not to support Karzai’s effort to plug the legitimacy gap, presumably to maintain a plausible claim of being an “honest broker.” For his part, Karzai has attempted to burnish his nationalist credentials by criticizing civilian deaths in western air strikes. (Personally, my mind keeps turning to thoughts of Ngo Dinh Diem … )

Concurrently, our logistics train is becoming more vulnerable just as we prepare to surge.