Wretchard,

Given the assault on Gori, it is clear Putin has decided to take Georgia. The logistics of the Russian forces in the fighting so far argues for a pre-planned and large conflict.

To date, this is how I read the conflict:

The Georgian forces were goaded by attacks from South Ossetia and the Georgian President fell for the Russian trap.

However, the Georgians seem to be fighting smart, now that they realize what is going on.

1. They set up an anti-aircraft buzz saw over Tblisi that among other things nailed a Backfire Tu-22 bomber.

2. The Georgian air force managed to get off a number of Su-25 sorties the first two days that hit Russian forces.

3. The Georgians claim to have hit and closed the Roki Tunnel. Given that the mouth of the tunnel is in heavy multiple rocket range of Georgia, that seems credible.

4. The Georgians have managed to wound the commanding general for the 58th heavy division. Both the Soviets and NATO have military doctrine to take out senior commanders and the Georgians managed to pull it off.

5. The Russians are flying in paratroopers to back up the 58th. That implies that the Georgian infantry is causing the 58th problems in the mountainous terrain around Tskhinvali.

6. The Georgians took the pass that Tskhinvali, South Ossetia, sat in. The fighting there has resulted in the city being destroyed by artillery fire. They then abandoned the city and were sitting on the high ground outside it.

The only dumb thing — besides falling for the trap in the first instance — they tried militarily to was to try and disengage under cease fire.

All that said, the Russians have

(a) Established air superiority over Georgia,

(b) They are moving ground forces by sea to Ochamchire, opposite the Kodori Gorge,

(c) They just sank a Georgian missile patrol boat (See: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSLA56070520080810), so a defacto blockade of Georgia is under way (see: http://rmgh.net/news-room/alerts/62-alerts/795-russian-navy-blockades-humanitarian-wheat-shipment-to-georgia-.html),

(d) The are massing ground forces against the Kodori Gorge, which is a route to the port of Poti,

My take is that the Russians have activated contingency plans to over run Georgia, based on harder then expected resistance by Georgia.

The Bush administration has denounced all of this and is air lifting a brigade of Georgian troops in Iraq back to Georgia.

Just where those USAF transports will land is a very good question.

What is in them besides Georgian troops is also a good question.