It’s important to recognize what’s Putin’s motive.

Putin is in power because he runs a patronage network of thugs. To stay in power, like Saddam or Ahmadinejad, he needs to deliver lots of cash to the thugs. Simple as that.

For the cash to keep flowing, the world price of oil has to be north of $140 a barrel. None of these thug states can produce oil profitably at low(er) prices because it would require suppressing the thug network that keeps these Big Men in power.

Which means, broadly speaking, there will be war between Russia and Iran on the one hand, with their need to jack up world oil prices and keep their thugs paid, and the US, China, and other powers on the other hand, who need cheaper oil to keep THEIR economies going.

China needs cheap oil to keep their manufacturing base going and prevent a gigantic revolution from spreading all over their country. Already I’ll note that Uighur and Hui Muslim terrorism is spreading all over the country. The US needs cheap oil to keep the Welfare State going, keep payments to corporate and social-ethnic-racial groups that keep the peace.

This pretty much guarantees war in some form or another.

And Obama? He’s like Carter reacting to the USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan. His Berlin speech looks like the stupidest bet ever, in the aftermath of what is sure to be Russian invasion and occupation, a brutal one at that, of Georgia.

Russia has to occupy and control Georgia, to keep the pipeline dead. They can’t afford cheap gas and oil going to Europe outside their control. They must keep their thugs paid after all to keep Putin in power.