You can get more with a kind word and a gun then you can with just a kind word. And in case there is any doubt about the gun…

The competing concept to the End of History was the clash of civilizations. Maybe the Russians want to resurrect an “orthodox” civilizational empire to face the Islamic one they see emerging to their south. Their support for Serbia fits. If they have Georgia under their thumb, they have pretty much flanked the Ukraine. Once their borders with Islam are secure, they can even cooperate with Islam against Europe, India and China — playing all against the other.

They probably worry most about China. They had a pretty nasty border war in Mao’s day, I seem to recall. Also, China and India had a border war with China grabbing part of what India claimed (The PLA got pounded by Viet Nam, ten years later, though). What developed was a Russia-India axis vs. a China-Pakistan axis. The US tilted toward China-Pakistan at the time.

I guess the US will be the wild card in such a world. The Chirac – Schroeder policy of antagonizing those Americans most inclined to help Europe defend itself will make a US drift into free agency more likely.