Indeed, the decision by the United States and Europe to recognize Kosovo may well have paved the way for Russia’s lightning-fast decision to send troops to back the separatists in South Ossetia. During one meeting on Kosovo in Brussels this year, Mr. Lavrov, the foreign minister, warned Ms. Rice and European diplomats that if they recognized Kosovo, they would be setting a precedent for South Ossetia and other breakaway provinces.
For the Bush administration, the choice now becomes whether backing Georgia — which, more than any other former Soviet republic has allied with the United States — on the South Ossetia issue is worth alienating Russia at a time when getting Russia’s help to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions is at the top of the United States’ foreign policy agenda.
One United Nations diplomat joked on Saturday that “if someone went to the Russians and said, ‘OK, Kosovo for Iran,’ we’d have a deal.”
That might be hyperbole, but there is a growing feeling among some officials in the Bush administration that perhaps the United States cannot have it all, and may have to choose its priorities, particularly when it comes to Russia.
The Bush administration’s strong support for Georgia — including the training of Georgia’s military and arms support — came, in part, as a reward for its support of the United States in Iraq. The United States has held Georgia up as a beacon of democracy in the former Soviet Union; it was supposed to be an example to other former Soviet republics of the benefits of tilting to the West.
But that, along with America and Europe’s actions on Kosovo, left Russia feeling threatened, encircled and more convinced that it had to take aggressive measures to restore its power, dignity and influence in a region it considers its strategic back yard, foreign policy experts said.
Russia’s emerging aggressiveness is now also timed with America’s preoccupation with Iraq and Afghanistan, and the looming confrontation with Iran. These counterbalancing considerations mean that Moscow is in the driver’s seat, administration officials acknowledged.
“We’ve placed ourselves in a position that globally we don’t have the wherewithal to do anything,” Mr. Friedman of Stratfor said. “One would think under those circumstances, we’d shut up.”
One senior administration official, when told of that quote, laughed. “Well, maybe we’re learning to shut up now,” he said. He asked that his name not be used because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the issue.
Pretty true. Russia’s loss of status as Serbia’s protector over the invading Muslims in Kosovo still burns them mightily. The US would have likely found the Russians far more cooperative on pipelines, Iran, border disputes, Venezuela arms, and E Europe if we hadn’t disregarded G. H. Bush’s warning to remain away from kicking them when they were temporily weaken and down, to avoid rubbing Russian noses in it. We ignored Bush I’s advice, even Reagan’s desires that we treat Russia with respect and friendship – beginning in the mid-90s, when Republican neocons and some Clintonistas with lips planted on China’s ass – went for every way to screw Russia they could…
Now with the 3rd strongest support of it’s people of any major nation (54%), China is tops at 86% approval…(US only has 18% approval of it’s government policies) – A resurgent, energy-exporting Russia has a the confidence, the money, and firm backing of it’s people to seek little payback for the Origarchs, neocons, and USA Cold War hawks in mind.
