My summation:
1.] The initial thrust through the Roki Tunnel was a crap-shoot. By the terrain maps provided, sending an armored column down a narrow valley only works if a.) one has sufficient space to redeploy to line of battle [a standard Soviet action...advance in column (speed), reconfigure to battalions-in-line (max firepower); or b.) your opponents are too busy shitting in their pants to take effective action. Based on reports, the Georgians chose c.) allow your enemies' column to fully enter a preregistered 'kill box' and 'fire for effect'. As to the commander of the 58th getting wacked, that's easy: I was taught...kill anything with more than 2 radio antennas, they're the leaders. Unless things have changed dramatically, an organized Russian attack force is death on treads. A leaderless Russian force is a mob going forward on inertia alone.
As to the tunnel being open or not, that's irrelevant. It's a choke point; if the Georgians have indirect fire weapons within effective range, it's a death trap. In either case the Georgians most likely have the GPS coordinates for the area in question. Without effective Air Defense assets [my No. 2 priority of things to kill...] the tunnel is still a death trap.
2.] The Kodori Gorge. This is a secondary axis of attack. After looking at the Google map, this a second crap shoot. Will it work? Yes if, a.) the Georgians are stretched too thin to effectively block a thrust out of the gorge. b.)The Russians have sufficient air assets to break any defensive line the Georgians put up. Without a.) AND b.), it’s a bigger death trap than the Roki tunnel mouth. I sincerely hope the Georgians have GPS coords on key points of the gorge.
3.] The Black Sea gambit. Purpose: economic isolation. The Georgian navy isn’t much look at, but they do have Exocet and C802 anti-ship missiles at their disposal. The Russians ignore the fact at their peril. Secondary effect: further dispersal of their defensive elements; the Georgian army can’t be everywhere at once. Besides, if the Russians do an amphibious assault, their pretense of ‘defense of Russian nationals’ will be laid bare. Besides, activating that option means 1.] & 2.] above are a total bust.
4.] Strategic bombers and Scuds? If true, this Russia over-playing it’s hand. Bringing that level of weapons systems to bear will change the geopolitical dynamic, considerably.
So then, what can we do? Nothing…that would be a fatal mistake. NATO: don’t make me laugh. With the exception of France, the majority of the major players are prisoners to their pipelines…from the east. The UN? Bwahahahahahaha. You must kidding.
What would I do? 1.] Send Putin a message: cease all military activity, or else. 2.] If that doesn’t work (give it 6-12 hours), send 3 B-2s in the dark of the night. 2 to Kodori Gorge and JDAM the road going to Georgia, 1 to Roki Tunnel and leave a present: 6 GBU-28′s. Two into the tunnel and other 4 onto tunnel mouth. Now for the riskiest part: drop 1 brigade of the 82nd into Georgia athwart the Abkhazia border and double down on Putin. If you have to send a message, you might as well make it unmistakable.
Putin may ambitious, cunning and ruthless, but stupid he ain’t. He’ll stomp on little Georgia ’till the sun comes up, but going toe-to-toe with the US? Like I said, he ain’t stupid. Besides, it’s long past time to send a message to our friends, and our enemies. Might as well be now.
