I am wondering if the key prize of the Caucasus War is Turkmenistan. As present, Turkmenistan can export its natural gas through either Russia or Iran. Turkmenistan seems to function as a neutral zone between Russian and Iranian spheres of influence. If Russia can prevent any trans-Caucasus pipeline from exporting Turkmen gas, it may keep western influence out of central Asia.

Any America supply route to Afghanistan that bypasses Russia/Kazakhstan, Iran, and Pakistan would necessarily go through Turkmenistan via the Caucasus. Admittedly, Turkmenistan is a repressive post-Soviet totalitarian state with eerie similarities to North Korea and Libya, a state unlikely to be friendly to American ideas of freedom. Still, with the Caucasus/Turkmen supply route cut off, America’s position in Afghanistan becomes dependent upon Russia, Pakistan, and Iran. Ouch.

Every supply route into Afghanistan appears to be controlled by people whose agendas rarely coincide with American priorities. When thousands more American troops arrive in Afghanistan to fight the Taliban, how should they be supplied?