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Who’s winning in Georgia?

August 9, 2008 - 2:12 pm - by Richard Fernandez
Aether
2008-08-09 21:46:44

Whiskey,

Russia *may* win a tactical victory and carve up Georgia and possibly even absorb Belloruss, however John Samford is correct that the former Soviets no longer have significant ability to project hard military power, in a meaningful way, outside their immediate periphery.

For Russia to take any actions greater more than absorbing South Ossetia would be a strategic mistake. Fear would be a great motivator for Eastern and Western Europe nations alike… and given the EU nations status as modern industrial economies, you would likely see an astonishing pace of re-militarization by many of the NATO allies.

Also, don’t be fooled by the socialist fecklessness of the European political elite… Old Europe, and France and Britain in particular still retain, many levers of power, including modern and deadly hard power, as well as the logistics tail to be able to project that hard power.

Europe simply needs the political will to utilize there strengths, and too much foolishness on Putin’s part could help shift the political winds enough to help provide that will.

It’s very unlikely that Russia will ever regain the former Soviet Empire in the manner you describe.