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By Richard Fernandez

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Who’s winning in Georgia?

August 9, 2008 - 2:12 pm - by Richard Fernandez
Doug
2008-08-09 21:40:25

Steve @ ThreatsWatch.Org RapidRecon Georgia And Russia Collide In South Ossetia

Georgia’s status as a U.S. ally further complicates matters. Approximately 130 American military trainers are presently stationed in the country, and upwards of 1000 Marines and soldiers had billeted at the Vaziani military base in July to train Georgian troops. Meanwhile, a contingent from Georgia is currently serving alongside allied forces in Iraq.

Awash in oil revenues and eager to resume a prominent position on the world stage, Russia has demonstrated a strong inclination in recent years to readmit former Soviet states like Georgia into its sphere of influence. In addition, the region contains significant strategic value to the Russian state. “Strategically, Abkhazia {Georgia’s other breakaway region} is the southern terminus of the Sukhumi Military Road and South Ossetia, the Georgian and Ossetian Military Roads,” explained a Russian military expert. “All are traditional strategically vital Russian (Soviet) ground routes across the High Caucasus Mountains into the Trans-Caucasus Region. Russia will never relinquish them, whatever the cost.”

Assuming a cease-fire cannot be brokered in a timely fashion, the United States would be forced to confront and reconcile a pair of competing strategic interests:
the desire to assuage Russian concerns over U.S. encroachment and dampen the simmering tensions between the two nations on the one hand, and the desire to support an ally in a vital geo-strategic region against an unhelpful world actor and former enemy on the other.
And if abandoning Georgia is unacceptable in lieu of that nation’s cooperation with the United States in Iraq, risking the possible military stand-off with Russia is equally so…