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By Richard Fernandez

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Who’s winning in Georgia?

August 9, 2008 - 2:12 pm - by Richard Fernandez
wretchard
2008-08-09 19:28:53

I’m sure the Georgians know all about Kodori. But they only have so many brigades and the Bear is widening the embracing by the hour so that sooner or later the Georgians will have a threat axis they can’t cover. Realistically, the Georgians can only buy time by yielding territory dearly to the Russians. I think Putin was counting on a fait accompli, with the major action over under the cover of the Olympics. But each hour the Russians don’t finish this hardens the coalition against them. The old Western alliance has snapped back under this threat. Politically speaking time is not on the Russian’s side.

At some point the West may become so alarmed they will risk confronting Russia. Putin is gambling that the West won’t reach this point until after his armor has rolled into Tbilisi. The Georgians by their resistance are gambling the Russians won’t get to Tbilisi before the West reaches this point. Who will win the race?