Mr. Fernandez,

If you’ll recall, in 2006 there was speculation — much of it on your blog — that Israel had been simply lying in wait, anticipating that Hezbollah would eventually overstep (it’s the scorpion’s nature). We entertained the idea that the Israeli government, having recognized “public justification” as a necessary precondition for endgame escalation, had been patiently biding its time until the opportunity arose to unleash hell and destroy Hezbollah. We were wrong, of course.

But now? This has all the markings of a Venus Fly Trap. Russia needed a pretext to make a strategic move against Georgia’s democrats. Using the separatists, the Bear kept poking and poking, waiting for Saakashvili to overplay his hand. The mistake came, providing Russia with the pretext necessary for endgame escalation.

What we’re seeing now is the trap closing. Given the precedents of the last 17 years (Kuwait, Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq) and the political context of the present (Bush’s approval rating, the priority of Iraq and Iran, and the resurgence of the Realists in US foreign policy), I think Russia is willing to be feared again so long as she can improve her strategic position. In fact, being feared again might just be one of her priorities.