fred:
I think the Russian incursion only makes it MORE likely that Georgia will solidify its alliance with the West, not less. The only question is how resolute the West will be in defending Georgian rights to join NATO.

There are no “rights” to join NATO. Only if member states agree it is in their interest to allow a nation to join the “Club” for mutual benefit and risk-sharing.

In this case, Georgia launched an aggressive war that left up to 1,000 Russian peacekeepers and passport-holders dead. Now they are getting pummeled for their “audacity of hope” by a superior Russian military.

Sakaashvili made a bone-headed move. Similar to the dumb aggression of the Greek Dictatorship allowing an extreme nationalist to invade Cyprus – start a war and then act shocked as no one intervenes as a superior opponent squashes your weaker military like a bug..

Huan – now. As an ally who have supported our efforts elsewhere (Afghanistan and Iraq) the US should now reciprocate. We should provide them with all the necessary intelligence to defend their territorial integrity and autonomy, as well as hardware and supplies.

Why? Does having “boots on the ground” in Iraq in retrurn for 100s of millions or billions in US aid from the wastrel Bushies some constitute a defacto mutual defense treaty? Jordan has “boots on the ground” Israel doesn’t, so does it compute that Jordan is now owed US lives and treasure if they assault Israel??? Or Peru has sent troops and contractors to Iraq and Afghanistan for Bush’s dangled “coalition of the willing” financial bait, while Bolivia has not…therefore, the US is now locked into obligation to join Peru in an attack on Bolivia?

France and Germany said that NATO is now even more off the table than it was before the Georgian attack on Russian citizens and peacekeepers. A German ministery official said the prospect being drawn in to direct fighting between European states and Russia over a small country’s unresolved territorial disputes is “unacceptable”.

The Americans, who helped set up nationalist Sakaashvili with the Rose Revolution, despite his claims he would forcefully settle all separatist issues, have now recognized the Neocon dream of NATO and a Caspian oil pipeline to the Med to serve Israel and avoid Russian territory is all endangered to the Georgian-started war. No oil pipeline under NATO protection now looks feasible to the Euros, even prominent American officials:

The conflict “absolutely” dooms Georgia’s chances for NATO membership, said Robert Hunter, U.S. ambassador to the Brussels- based alliance under President Bill Clinton and now a senior adviser at the policy-research group RAND Corp. in Washington. “You don’t bring in a country that has this sort of trouble.”